Central bankers and the untractable problem of QE This year’s meeting of the world’s central bankers in Jackson Hole takes on a particular importance. Central banks face the unique challenge of beginning the long goodbye to the QE programmes. Nervousness in the...
Cryptocurrencies are hot! Upon closer inspection, they are a bad idea coupled with a brilliant technology. The technology will be broadly applied and even accepted by central banks. Existing cryptocurrencies are less likely to get this seal of approval. For good...
Inflation is getting a lot of airtime these days. Bond yields are increasing rapidly, and much ink is spilled on guessing whether inflation or a rapid return to growth is the culprit. Inflation will affect all other asset in not-so-simple ways. Asset allocation...
Early last week we recommended investors to reduce equity holdings. Many investors have a tendency to focus only on one set of data when making allocation decisions. We look at four different groups of data, and we see sufficient movement in several of them that we...
From the point of view of the financial markets, 2020 was a good year. The sector praised itself for its ability to “see through” to the moment where the CoviD-19 pandemic is behind us. Many things were, however, unchanged despite the pandemic. When the history books...
So, is your IFM in compliance with the investment oversight requirements? Are you really really sure? The financial authority have placed still more responsibility on the Luxembourg investment fund industry. This one requires investment expertise - something...
"Brexit is finally a reality. A fatally flawed referendum was followed by a disastrous political process that no responsible UK politician can be proud of. UK obtained the thinnest of all deals with the EU, essentially only avoiding a complete chaos regarding trade of...
A new stimulus round has finally taken form in EU and US. The coronavirus vaccine inoculation has started. The UK Brexit (or)deal is done. The primary financial assets, stocks and bonds are both near all-time-high, pricing in all the above. So just as evidence mount...
Financial markets should probably take the new strain of the Sars-CoV-2 rather seriously. Its higher infectiousness increases required level of herd immunity by quite a bit. More people will have to be vaccinated before we can relax. However, the widespread resistance...
Opportunities in forex markets are rare as markets are generally highly efficient. We view odds are increasing for a USD weakening potentially of some 20% eventually taking EUR/USD towards 1.45. Procyclical forces covered in "A sector rotation is building" of 17...