Insights

Compliant with new investment oversight?

Compliant with new investment oversight?

So, is your IFM in compliance with the investment oversight requirements? Are you really really sure? The financial authority have placed still more responsibility on the Luxembourg investment fund industry. This one requires investment expertise - something...

Habemus Brexit

Habemus Brexit

"Brexit is finally a reality. A fatally flawed referendum was followed by a disastrous political process that no responsible UK politician can be proud of. UK obtained the thinnest of all deals with the EU, essentially only avoiding a complete chaos regarding trade of...

Economic aid, vaccinations and then?

Economic aid, vaccinations and then?

A new stimulus round has finally taken form in EU and US. The coronavirus vaccine inoculation has started. The UK Brexit (or)deal is done. The primary financial assets, stocks and bonds are both near all-time-high, pricing in all the above. So just as evidence mount...

Herd immunity and economic growth

Herd immunity and economic growth

Financial markets should probably take the new strain of the Sars-CoV-2 rather seriously. Its higher infectiousness increases required level of herd immunity by quite a bit. More people will have to be vaccinated before we can relax. However, the widespread resistance...

The shrinking USD?

The shrinking USD?

Opportunities in forex markets are rare as markets are generally highly efficient. We view odds are increasing for a USD weakening potentially of some 20% eventually taking EUR/USD towards 1.45. Procyclical forces covered in "A sector rotation is building" of 17...

More good news

More good news

The good news keeps arriving regarding the CoViD-19 vaccine together with a continued increase in the infections worldwide. We can now be reasonably certain that the pandemics will be brought to heel in second half of 2021. The stock markets react as if the virus has...

A vaccine against the depression

A vaccine against the depression

The joint statement from Pfizer and BioNtech of successful phase three trials of vaccine against CoVid-1 has the potential to be the next game changing event in the SARS 2 CoViD-19 saga. We are nowhere near having the vaccine generally available. The immediate impact...

Benchmarks? Do we need them?

Benchmarks? Do we need them?

New benchmark recommendations from ESMA aim to correct the way funds are using benchmarks. Since the introduction of the Benchmark Directive in 2018, many funds have effectively removed relevant benchmarks and replaced them by money market rates. Given the strong...

A correction or just volatility?

A correction or just volatility?

The Covid pandemic (a once in a century event, one hopes) again accelerates briskly across Europe. The US Federal Reserve Bank has revised its policy objective (a once in three decades event). Debt levels are soaring (to historically unprecedented levels). A UK hard...

Risk allocation is neutral

Risk allocation is neutral

Active Risk Allocation (ARA) update: The recommended risk allocation has stabilised around neutral after a short period of advising slightly below average risk exposure. Seen from a top-down view allocation is merely simmering around neutral towards benchmark...